revoultion underway?
friday morning post-elections are always dangerous times. especially if one party wins under controversial circumstances. in any case, the protests and dissent shown by the general populace in iran is reminiscent of those seen in 1979. october 1977 to february 1979. that was how long it took for the last revolution to come full circle.
it started with the death of a revolutionarist's son, blamed on the then-intelligence service of iran, the SAVAK. it is no coincidence that with the fall of the shah and the rise of new democratic reformists led by a certain khomeini, SAVAK was "disbanded" and reformed into a new agency.
the elections held just in the past week by iran was nothing more than a farce in the eyes of some observers. in my opinion, for all the complaints about the election being rigged, could it not be that ahmadinejad really won fair and square? plausible but i doubt it too.
so where does all this leave iran? there are a few possible outcomes:
1. the incumbent agrees to a re-vote if sanctioned by the guardian council (a group of 12 charged with the interpretation of the constitution of iran) and the incumbent wins again. the opposition accepts the results and moves on.
2. after a re-vote, the opposition wins and the incumbent is forced to step down, possibly triggering another wave of protests and clashes between each respective sets of supporters.
3. the council rules the votes valid and the opposition accepts the results, though highly unlikely at this moment.
4. the council orders a recount (not a re-vote) and finds the incumbent to be the winner again.
5. after a recount, the opposition is declared the winner.
whatever happens, i'm fairly sure that the protests will go on for a while longer, at least until the oppoisition gets what it wants. whoever wins, it is still a catch-22 for all the foreign services to deal with iran. all 3 opposition and the incumbent believes in the need for nuclear weapons. the question perhaps is, who is the lesser of two evils? one who wants to (and i quote) "wipe israel off the face of the earth"? or one who encourages closer dialogue and slightly warmer ties to everyone in the international community?
edit: and now brute force is used. one does wonder if a second tiananmen square of sorts is possible..
it started with the death of a revolutionarist's son, blamed on the then-intelligence service of iran, the SAVAK. it is no coincidence that with the fall of the shah and the rise of new democratic reformists led by a certain khomeini, SAVAK was "disbanded" and reformed into a new agency.
the elections held just in the past week by iran was nothing more than a farce in the eyes of some observers. in my opinion, for all the complaints about the election being rigged, could it not be that ahmadinejad really won fair and square? plausible but i doubt it too.
so where does all this leave iran? there are a few possible outcomes:
1. the incumbent agrees to a re-vote if sanctioned by the guardian council (a group of 12 charged with the interpretation of the constitution of iran) and the incumbent wins again. the opposition accepts the results and moves on.
2. after a re-vote, the opposition wins and the incumbent is forced to step down, possibly triggering another wave of protests and clashes between each respective sets of supporters.
3. the council rules the votes valid and the opposition accepts the results, though highly unlikely at this moment.
4. the council orders a recount (not a re-vote) and finds the incumbent to be the winner again.
5. after a recount, the opposition is declared the winner.
whatever happens, i'm fairly sure that the protests will go on for a while longer, at least until the oppoisition gets what it wants. whoever wins, it is still a catch-22 for all the foreign services to deal with iran. all 3 opposition and the incumbent believes in the need for nuclear weapons. the question perhaps is, who is the lesser of two evils? one who wants to (and i quote) "wipe israel off the face of the earth"? or one who encourages closer dialogue and slightly warmer ties to everyone in the international community?
edit: and now brute force is used. one does wonder if a second tiananmen square of sorts is possible..
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